Sunday, August 01, 2004
Kerry Will Lose...Oh Yeah, Big-Time
Stronger America Circa 1988
Kerry is going to lose…badly.
Those whose job it is to know these things, have already written off the Kerry candidacy. It’s hard for a convention to come and go and not receive a boost - yet that is precisely what John Kerry managed to do. To put it in some perspective for you Dukakis in 1988 was running 17 points ahead of the senior Bush after the Democratic convention. After the GOP convention, Dukakis was pounded into the ground and lost all those points and then some. Kerry is leaving after a convention weaker than he went into it. It’s quite simple --only other very unsympathetic folks can like or embrace this man, John Kerry.
We’ll hear a lot of excuses after the first week in November. Blaming DNC disorganization, a split Democratic party that still clung to a disintegrated Dean candidacy, a poor DNC speech that appears worse with each passing moment and the age-old lament of “missed opportunities“. The fact of the matter is Kerry and the Democratic party have no real message for voters. “We’ll raise your taxes” and “Bush is a bad man” doesn’t really appeal to anyone except perhaps for those Democrats whose formal education ended earlier than the norm.
The truth of the matter is the DNC is disorganized. The attempt to elect Kerry is half-hearted. The powerbrokers in the DNC, such as the Clintons, have been withholding information from Kerry. Kerry was the last to know that his trusted adviser Sandy Berger was under a criminal investigation and had been for months. That he was unaware of this shows how much has truly been kept from John Kerry by the Clinton gang. Almost everyone around the Clintons knew this - yet none bothered to tell Kerry or any of his people. A Kerry victory in 2004 would have spoiled a Hillary candidacy in 2008. So they let Kerry be Kerry and advised him wrongly every chance they could get. When Kerry went to woo Hillary, Hillary declined and privately suggested that Kerry woo John McCain - knowing fully well that McCain would never accept. The time spent on this futile endeavor, limited his time spent finding the best Democratic candidate for VP. Edwards is amazingly inexperienced for a VP selection and has a high “Quayle factor” - the look of an inexperienced, yet affable, simpleton. The fact that Edwards was a trial lawyer is merely another discomforting fact, not his main problem.
So now we will watch as the GOP convention proceeds to boost Bush -- who according to CNN is already leading after the failed DNC convention. I am projecting a seven point bounce leaving the polling data revealing a 58-42 match-up going into October. Any debates will tweak that number a point or two in either direction and the media will do its notorious "last minute miracle polls" revealing a neck and neck race, which we all get to make fun of later.
The question to ask yourselves is this -- do you think Hillary will let Kerry speak at her convention in 2008? If you are the sort who answered yes -- than you may still be able to enjoy the next few months before the election. For you are a person who has hope against all odds -- or a fiendishly wicked sense of humor.
Posted by SDAI at 3:03 PM